Mark: Huckabee’s Catholic Problem?

A funny statistic has been floating around the net, namely that Mike Huckabee’s victory in Iowa is undermined by his weakness in Catholic support.

This is a curious development as, in theory, Huckabee is hitting the Catholic sweet spot. He is combining traditional social conservatism with economic populism, indeed much of his economic position seems tailor made for Catholic social teaching adherents. However the Catholic vote has always been curious and critical. What explains this disconnect?

One, is a matter of tone. If Huckabee’s message was being delivered by a hypothetical Midwestern Catholic governor instead of a Southern Baptist preacher governor perhaps it would sound sweeter to Catholic voters’ ears.

Two, Iowa does not have a decisive percentage of Catholic voters, while not insignificant I think its too early to draw conclusions about whether or not Huckabee is turning off Catholic voters. Only 23 percent of Iowa voters were Catholics in 2004 and they voted for Kerry by 7 points. Catholic voters in Iowa skew slightly above average to the Democratic side.

Three, Huckabee’s preaching at noted anti-Catholic preacher John Hagee’s church probably didn’t explicitly hurt Huck but it probably didnt help among Catholic voters.

Four, let’s wait for the Michigan primary to make a final judgment. Michigan has a higher proportion of Catholic voters and will probably resonate stronger with his populsim in that economically deprived state.