Now Hillary has a tough task at hand.  She needs to stop the Obama momentum at all costs.  Up next is Wisconsin, and as of right now she appears to be ceeding Wisconsin to him by her focus on Texas and Ohio.  Hillary needs to get in there, roll up her sleeves and make him work for it in Wisconsin.  of if she can’t, she needs to take the muzzle and leash off Bill, and let him do what he does best…take people down!!!!!

 Should be fun to watch.  The next big date is March 3, that’s really the last stand for Hillary.  if she loses Texas, it’s probably over. 

On the Republican side, Huckabee hanging around is essentially going to force McCain to win the nomination.  This could provide a stark contrast to a party and nomination which may be decided in a back room deal at the democratic convention. 

 http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4279122&page=1

 Virginia
Hillary wins
McCain wins

Maryland
Hillary wins
McCain wins

DC
Obama wins
McCain wins

Wouldn’t be surprised if either huck or obama won Virginia.  Although, I believe that Virginia is actually a “must win”, but not for Hillary, for Obama.  She can at least fall back on the specter of Texas, Ohio and PA in March and April.  The Obama momentum wave needs wins.  IF Hillary wins Virginia, look for her to declare victory against the Obama momentum, and look for her people to spin this as a repudiation of Obama’s chances against McCain in the general election. 

 UPDATE:  Rasmussen Feb 6-7 poll has Obama up 55-37 on Hillary, so my prediction could be way way off.  That would be an absolute thrashing by Obama in a state where there should be enough DC democratic presence to make the Clintons’ competitive.  If that holds up in the Primary results tonight, I fully expect the Clintons to go nuclear.  One final thing to note, Hillary’s stump speeches seem to be a bit heavy on the policy.  Bill’s have been a bit more simplified, with an updated version of the message “It’s the economy stupid.”  Look for Bill’s influence to increase if she gets slaughtered in Va. 

However, tonight’s trouncing of McCain by Huckabee in Kansas, as well as a potential Huckabee win in Louisiana, with a strong showing in the state of Washington, have Mike Huckabee as the darling of the news cycle.

 As many of you may or may not be aware, Texas Governor Rick Perry called Mike Huckabee today to request that he stand down.  Wolf Blitzer asked Huckabee if he embarrassed John McCain in Kansas.  So, this begs the question, is Huckabee going to do damage to the November ticket by staying in the primary?  My answer is No.

The primary reason that Huckabee will do no damage to McCain in the general election (assuming he does not run the table and have a miracle come from behind victory and grab the nomination), is that he is not running a negative campaign.  Thus, while Hillary and Barack tear each other apart, a Huckabee – McCain primary will leave little, if any, collateral damage.

That said, the Huck-McCain primary may serve as a stroke of accidental genius.  McCain has a huge problem right now, that being he needs to mend fences with conservatives, while at the same time maintaining his “moderate” “maverick” persona for the general election.  A continual primary, with McCain getting thumped in conservative states, means that while McCain goes and speaks at CPAC and other conservative groups, and while he subtly courts conservatives, the news story will be focused on how he continually loses conservative states.  Essentially, McCain maintains his image as a moderate/maverick by losing conservative states, while at the same time, affords himself the quiet opportunity to move to the right.  Potentially brilliant.

The second prong of this “accidental brilliance” would be if McCain intends on taking Huckabee as his Vice President.  If that is his plan, every Huckabee win strengthens him as a contender in the national/public eye.  Thus Huckabee winning conservative states can set him up as the conservative standard bearer, even if his votes are merely anti-McCain votes.  In that sense, if Huckabee wins enough states to become the conservative standard bearer, and if McCain picks Huckabee as his Vice President, McCain appears to be appeasing the conservative wing by choosing their anointed spokesperson. 

Finally, Huckabee staying in the race is important because it will send a message to both McCain, and the talking heads, that the life based issues carry a huge chunk of republican votes.  John McCain, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and company would be wise not to ignore this when approaching the general election.  Taking pro-life votes for granted could guarantee a Democratic victory.  Huckabee fighting on will help republicans realize this. 

So, in closing, it seems to me that so long as Huckabee and McCain do not attack each other, a continued Huckabee-McCain primary can only be a good thing for the party, and for John McCain.  That is…unless Gov. Huckabee shocks the world and wins the nomination.  And hey…why not? 

 Virginia predictions to follow on Monday. 

 ”The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary shows that John McCain and Mike Huckabee are tied at 24%. In a race that has already seen four different candidates with the lead, much could still change in the coming days–7% of voters have yet to make up their mind, 10% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% might change their mind. “

Link to Rasmussen Article

However, this is not an endorsement
From National Review
Ronald Reagan, the GOP, and “Real Change” [Newt Gingrich]

Also, there has been some speculation that I have endorsed a Republican candidate or that I am supporting a particular candidate “behind the scenes.” Nothing can be further from the truth. The fact is that I have offered my advice to any candidate that wants it and have had personal conversations with several candidates on a number of issues. My goal is to help every candidate be the best they can be. I want the strongest possible field because ultimately that will lead to a stronger America.

I break the state into several different and distinct regions with their seperate priorities.

1-City of Detroit- Everything you have heard about this city is true, stay away. Heavily Democratic, almost universally so. Ironically, McCain had his biggest wins in Michigan in the city in 2000, but that was crossover Democrats trying to sabotage Bush. Don’t look for that this time. McCain will probably carry this region but it will be a slim number of votes for the GOP man.

2-Metro Detroit suburbs- This is where the population of the city has fled to since the 1960′s. Truly a doughnut city, whereby the largest population actually lives and works outside the major urban area. This is where the recent economic woes will really begin to effect votes. The two major counties are Oakland and Macomb. Oakland is the traditional GOP stronghold of Michigan, suburban with pockets of affluents and a business minded population. Macomb is the classic Reagan Democrat county, with voters being more middle class, Catholic, and Democratic than Oakland. However, in the reversal we have seen in recent years, upscale suburban Oakland voted FOR John Kerry while middle class Macomb voted FOR George Bush.
Romney, drawing largely in part upon the good will direct towards his father, has been running an “Oakland County campaign”, i.e. focusing on the concerns of voters, his business experience, his managerial know how, and practical solutions directed at suburban professionals making 75K and up. To be honest, this is tailor made for Romney. This suits him much better than his ludicrous culture warrior campaign of 2007 and Iowa, and voters in Michigan are more open to hearing him because of his local connections. I expect Romney to do exceedingly well in Oakland County and metro Detroit overall. If McCain can win Macomb, a more McCain friendly area, or at least cut significantly into his margin there he will have a good chance of winning the state. the question for McCain is whether his ‘straight talk’ about the Michigan economic woes was too much for Michiganders to bear right now.

3- Industrial belt- Stretching from Monroe County in the south to Flint in the north, this area is really bearing the burden of the economy right now. This area will be a battle between McCain and Huckabee. In theory, Huckabee should carry this area, it is perfect for his blend of populism and social conservatism(it was key Perot territory in 1992), however as noted below , as with Huck and the Catholic vote, sometimes theory doesn’t work out so well in practice. This area is heavily UAW and Democratic, so whoever is GOP here should likely be GOP because of abortion and guns, another Huckabee strong point. McCain has also done very well with the under 50K demographic and has the chance to reconnect with these voters here.

4- Western Michigan- Grand rapids and the Dutch reformed heartland surrounding it. These are a Calvinist’s Calvinist. Again, social conservatism will be critical here so the conventional wisdom is that Huckabee will do well here. Indeed he will but it’s important to note the difference between Huckabee’s southern populist Baptist revival conservatism and Western Michigan’s reserved Reformed Calvinist conservatism. (A fact overlooked in the MSM’s account of the race.) This is the same area which sent that not so noted culture warrior Gerry Ford to the House of Representatives. Look for Huck to win but not like he will in the South.

5- Northern Michigan- This area is rural and cold, cold, cold. A great deal of forestry and farming go on here and the people tend to be hunters and conservative. McCain ran very well here in 2000 and expect a repeat performance. Huckabee should also compete here as his NRA creds and pro-life position will help.

In 2000 Bush won the GOP voters in this state but lost the primary and he only won the GOP voters by winning two issues with McCain-Abortion and Tax Cuts. Who in todays primary can win on those two issues? The answer is not obvious, in fact one could plausibly argue McCain would be best on both those today than his opponents. The irony of history.
Also of course, Michigan has the zany crossover voting, independents love McCain and will turnout to vote for him as well some mischief making Democrats (though they wil most likely vote for Romney this time round.) If independents make up 30 percent plus of the elctorate look for McCain to win, if under that Romney will have a real shot.

The zany unpredictable nature of this being said, lets make predictions:

Most importantly- Independents will be just under 30 percent of the GOP electorate
SO

1- Mitt Romney- 31%
2-John McCain- 28%
3-Mike Huckabee-22%
4- Rudy Giuliani- 7%
5- Ron Paul- 5%
6 Fred Thompson-5%

If Independents are plus 30 percent of electorate look for McCain to win with around 31-32 percent with Romney at 29 %

This is a curious development as, in theory, Huckabee is hitting the Catholic sweet spot. He is combining traditional social conservatism with economic populism, indeed much of his economic position seems tailor made for Catholic social teaching adherents. However the Catholic vote has always been curious and critical. What explains this disconnect?

One, is a matter of tone. If Huckabee’s message was being delivered by a hypothetical Midwestern Catholic governor instead of a Southern Baptist preacher governor perhaps it would sound sweeter to Catholic voters’ ears.

Two, Iowa does not have a decisive percentage of Catholic voters, while not insignificant I think its too early to draw conclusions about whether or not Huckabee is turning off Catholic voters. Only 23 percent of Iowa voters were Catholics in 2004 and they voted for Kerry by 7 points. Catholic voters in Iowa skew slightly above average to the Democratic side.

Three, Huckabee’s preaching at noted anti-Catholic preacher John Hagee’s church probably didn’t explicitly hurt Huck but it probably didnt help among Catholic voters.

Four, let’s wait for the Michigan primary to make a final judgment. Michigan has a higher proportion of Catholic voters and will probably resonate stronger with his populsim in that economically deprived state.

But what I don’t understand is why candidates who lose primaries, can’t be honest about it.  Edwards did pretty well with that in his concession speech.  But Obama really was giving a speech he should have given last week.  He talked about bringing youth and new people into the process.  Polling data indicates that that was last week’s story, he got killed in alot of key democratic demographics.

I was unimpressed with Obama tonight.  As much as I thought mana was going to rain from Heaven after his Iowa speech, I thought he came across as flat after New Hampshire. 

 Ok, Hillary’s on wearing an ugly shirt.  She looks like she’s going to cry again. 

“I want to thank New Hampshire, because over the last week I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.” That’s a fantastic line.

 ”Now together let’s give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.”  I have 100 bucks that Bill wrote that line.

Interesting note, she says “to win the war in Iraq the right way,” I wonder if she’s going to try to give herself wiggleroom because she knows she can’t remove the troops if elected.

Ok, all in all not a fantastic speech for Hillary, but a tremendous win.  The Democrats are in quite the bind.  I guess the big loser of the Night is John Edwards, who began to throw Hillary under the bus in an attempt to cozy up to Obama, or hope that he would be last man standing should Obama fizzle out. 

 UPDATE: The pundits seem to love Barack’s speech.  I’m sticking to my analysis.